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V-Lab

Mexican Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

5.15%

increased by 0.64%

1 Week

5.51%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

6.27%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.2183
9.48***
βGARCH0.7740
42.43***
γleverage-0.2014
-5.74***
λ₁tau intercept0.0381
2.11**
λ₂forecast adj.0.8824
11.45***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.892

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2183
9.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7740
42.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2014
-5.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0381
2.11**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8824
11.45***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.892

Half-life:

6 days