Mexican Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
10.53%
1 Week
10.38%
1 Month
10.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.2155 | 9.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7794 | 44.05*** |
| γleverage | -0.1993 | -5.84*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0388 | 2.11** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8823 | 11.11*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2155 | 9.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7794 | 44.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1993 | -5.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0388 | 2.11** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8823 | 11.11*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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