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V-Lab
V-Lab

British Pound MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

5.35%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

5.38%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

5.23%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 02:18 PM UTC

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graph of British Pound MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 124% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 124% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow106
αARCH0.0165
2.13**
βGARCH0.9301
65.04***
γleverage0.0205
2.29**
λ₁tau intercept0.0321
3.44***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8460
13.02***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
2.13**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9301
65.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0205
2.29**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0321
3.44***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8460
13.02***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days