V-Lab
British Pound MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.64%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.71%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.99%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 125% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.0166 | 2.12** |
| βGARCH | 0.9298 | 64.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0206 | 2.29** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0323 | 3.45*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8454 | 12.97*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0166 | 2.12** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9298 | 64.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0206 | 2.29** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0323 | 3.45*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8454 | 12.97*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
Other British Pound Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies