British Pound MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
4.57%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.65%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.84%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 122% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 122% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.0166 | 2.15** |
| βGARCH | 0.9304 | 65.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.0203 | 2.27** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0317 | 3.41*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8477 | 13.19*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0166 | 2.15** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9304 | 65.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0203 | 2.27** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0317 | 3.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8477 | 13.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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