Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

British Pound MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.64%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

4.71%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

4.99%

increased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 125% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow106
αARCH0.0166
2.12**
βGARCH0.9298
64.61***
γleverage0.0206
2.29**
λ₁tau intercept0.0323
3.45***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8454
12.97***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0166
2.12**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9298
64.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0206
2.29**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0323
3.45***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8454
12.97***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days