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V-Lab

British Pound MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.50%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

4.57%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.67%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 121% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 121% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow106
αARCH0.0167
2.16**
βGARCH0.9304
65.41***
γleverage0.0202
2.26**
λ₁tau intercept0.0315
3.40***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8484
13.26***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0167
2.16**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9304
65.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0202
2.26**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0315
3.40***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8484
13.26***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days