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V-Lab

British Pound MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

4.57%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

4.65%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

4.84%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 122% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 122% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow106
αARCH0.0166
2.15**
βGARCH0.9304
65.36***
γleverage0.0203
2.27**
λ₁tau intercept0.0317
3.41***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8477
13.19***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0166
2.15**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9304
65.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0203
2.27**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0317
3.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8477
13.19***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days