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V-Lab

British Pound GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

4.60%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.64%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.79%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~137 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
4.08***
αARCH0.0305
6.35***
βGARCH0.9644
191.85***

0.995

Persistence

137d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
4.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0305
6.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9644
191.85***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

137 days