British Pound GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
4.60%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.64%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.79%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~137 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 4.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 6.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9644 | 191.85*** |
0.995
Persistence137d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 4.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9644 | 191.85*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
137 days
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