Euro GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
4.42%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.45%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.55%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 281 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~281 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 3.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0270 | 9.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9706 | 307.34*** |
0.998
Persistence281d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 3.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0270 | 9.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9706 | 307.34*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
281 days
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