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V-Lab

Euro MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

2.40%

decreased by 2.75%

1 Week

274.15%

increased by 269.00%

1 Month

462,582,879,060.61%

increased by 462,582,879,055.46%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Euro MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8104
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0966
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1860
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1588
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7670
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-