Euro MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
5.70%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
5.35%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.39%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.0468 | 3.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.0063 | 0.32 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0258 | 4.40*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9142 | 13.55*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.050
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0468 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0063 | 0.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0258 | 4.40*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9142 | 13.55*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.050
Half-life:
0 days
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