Brazilian Real GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.71%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
8.86%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
9.40%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~117 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0069 | 6.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0829 | 11.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9113 | 138.83*** |
0.994
Persistence117d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 6.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9113 | 138.83*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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