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V-Lab
V-Lab

Brazilian Real GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

8.71%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

8.86%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

9.40%

increased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~117 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0069
6.16***
αARCH0.0829
11.18***
βGARCH0.9113
138.83***

0.994

Persistence

117d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0069
6.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9113
138.83***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

117 days