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V-Lab

Japanese Yen GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

4.91%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

4.97%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

5.21%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0018
17.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0374
35.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9567
821.23***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

119 days