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V-Lab

Japanese Yen GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

5.73%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

5.78%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

5.96%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0020
4.38***
αARCH0.0378
8.71***
βGARCH0.9557
198.41***

0.994

Persistence

107d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0020
4.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0378
8.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9557
198.41***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

107 days