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V-Lab

Brazilian Real Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

9.40%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

9.54%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

10.04%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0217
3.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0869
11.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8991
116.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0006
-0.16
γ20.0068
1.23
γ3-0.0177
-3.18***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days