Brazilian Real Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
9.40%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
9.54%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
10.04%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0217 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 11.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8991 | 116.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -0.16 |
| γ2 | 0.0068 | 1.23 |
| γ3 | -0.0177 | -3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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