Polish Zloty Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.90%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.92%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
4.99%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7003 | 5.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9179 | 90.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0121 | 0.39 |
| γ2 | -0.0197 | -0.41 |
| γ3 | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.0390 | 1.49 |
| γ5 | -0.1067 | -4.69*** |
| γ6 | 0.1424 | 6.14*** |
| γ7 | -0.0927 | -3.94*** |
| γ8 | 0.0467 | 1.71* |
| γ9 | -0.0955 | -2.39** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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