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V-Lab

Polish Zloty Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

4.90%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

4.92%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

4.99%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7003
5.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0585
7.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9179
90.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0121
0.39
γ2-0.0197
-0.41
γ30.0003
0.01
γ40.0390
1.49
γ5-0.1067
-4.69***
γ60.1424
6.14***
γ7-0.0927
-3.94***
γ80.0467
1.71*
γ9-0.0955
-2.39**

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days