V-Lab
Polish Zloty Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.32%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
6.41%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
6.75%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7633 | 5.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.0543 | 8.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9357 | 132.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0031 | -2.67*** |
| γ2 | 0.0049 | 2.43** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7633 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0543 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9357 | 132.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0031 | -2.67*** |
| γ2 | 0.0049 | 2.43** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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