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V-Lab

Polish Zloty APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

7.54%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

7.60%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

7.80%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 03:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/04/2024

to

10/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0035
4.34***
αARCH0.0522
7.91***
βGARCH0.9414
151.10***
γleverage-0.1518
-3.12***
δpower1.8955
9.42***

0.993

Persistence

94d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0035
4.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0522
7.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9414
151.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1518
-3.12***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8955
9.42***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

94 days