V-Lab
Polish Zloty APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
7.54%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
7.60%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
7.80%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 03:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0035 | 4.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.0522 | 7.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9414 | 151.10*** |
| γleverage | -0.1518 | -3.12*** |
| δpower | 1.8955 | 9.42*** |
0.993
Persistence94d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0035 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0522 | 7.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9414 | 151.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1518 | -3.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8955 | 9.42*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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