V-Lab
Polish Zloty AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6.76%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
6.83%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
7.10%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 14.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 36.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9390 | 600.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0934 | -10.10*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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