V-Lab
Polish Zloty AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
7.85%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
7.90%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
8.07%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 daysAsymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0028 | 3.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0532 | 9.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9392 | 150.82*** |
| γleverage | -0.0960 | -2.60*** |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0028 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0532 | 9.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9392 | 150.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0960 | -2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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