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V-Lab

Polish Zloty AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

6.76%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

6.83%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

7.10%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0029
14.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0534
36.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9390
600.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0934
-10.10***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days