V-Lab
Polish Zloty Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.53%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
5.62%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
5.93%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7885 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9359 | 132.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 0.0033 | 2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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