V-Lab
Polish Zloty Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
7.02%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
7.06%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
7.21%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7888 | 6.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0542 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9360 | 133.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0025 | -2.57** |
| γ2 | 0.0033 | 2.63*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7888 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9360 | 133.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0025 | -2.57** |
| γ2 | 0.0033 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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