V-Lab
Hungarian Forint Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.83%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
8.86%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
8.95%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3565 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 6.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9580 | 138.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0632 | 3.14*** |
| γ2 | -0.0990 | -3.44*** |
| γ3 | 0.0650 | 3.57*** |
| γ4 | -0.0658 | -4.00*** |
| γ5 | 0.0654 | 3.79*** |
| γ6 | -0.0356 | -2.51** |
| γ7 | 0.0055 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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