V-Lab
Hungarian Forint Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
9.64%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
9.64%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
9.67%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3563 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9580 | 137.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0635 | 3.16*** |
| γ2 | -0.0997 | -3.47*** |
| γ3 | 0.0657 | 3.61*** |
| γ4 | -0.0666 | -4.06*** |
| γ5 | 0.0659 | 3.84*** |
| γ6 | -0.0353 | -2.51** |
| γ7 | 0.0051 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
Other Hungarian Forint Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies