V-Lab
Hungarian Forint GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.88%
increased by 2.42%
1 Week
13.16%
increased by 3.70%
1 Month
13.83%
increased by 4.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7834 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4342 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5582 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9953 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.558
Half-life:
1 days
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