V-Lab
Hungarian Forint GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.80%
decreased by 6.95%
1 Week
12.08%
decreased by 3.67%
1 Month
13.57%
decreased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7823 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4345 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5587 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9952 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.559
Half-life:
1 days
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