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Hungarian Forint GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.98%

increased by 6.57%

1 Week

14.91%

increased by 5.50%

1 Month

14.27%

increased by 4.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7837
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4342
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5581
0.01
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9953
0.00

Persistence:

0.558

Half-life:

1 days