V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.80%
1 Week
6.90%
1 Month
7.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5898 | 0.91 |
| αARCH | 0.0454 | 22.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9934 | 141.81*** |
| νDF | 2.1150 | 85.03*** |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5898 | 0.91 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0454 | 22.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9934 | 141.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1150 | 85.03*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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