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Hong Kong Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

5.16%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

5.22%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

5.46%

decreased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Hong Kong Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3654
2.34**
αARCH0.0895
40.55***
βGARCH0.9990
2,401.44***
νDF2.0010

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3654
2.34**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0895
40.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,401.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0010

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days