V-Lab
Russian Ruble GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.41%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Week
40.44%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Month
40.58%
decreased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.05 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.0838 | 12.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 129.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0504 | 8,072.56*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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