V-Lab
Norwegian Krone GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
7.42%
1 Week
7.45%
1 Month
7.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 239 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4808 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0214 | 16.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 381.74*** |
| νDF | 3.0761 | 9.27*** |
0.997
Persistence239d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4808 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0214 | 16.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 381.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0761 | 9.27*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
239 days
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