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Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

40.96%

decreased by 3.93%

1 Week

42.96%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Month

50.11%

increased by 5.22%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Jul 25, 2026
Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

339.4690
6.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1067
118.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
6,986.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6846
227.70***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days