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Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

39.30%

decreased by 4.04%

1 Week

41.36%

decreased by 1.98%

1 Month

48.71%

increased by 5.37%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/17/2024

to

10/17/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 17, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst336.8906
1.69*
αARCH0.1060
29.85***
βGARCH0.9990
1,746.50***
νDF2.6668
59.27***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

336.8906
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1060
29.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,746.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6668
59.27***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days