V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.96%
decreased by 3.93%
1 Week
42.96%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Month
50.11%
increased by 5.22%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Jul 25, 2026Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 339.4690 | 6.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1067 | 118.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 6,986.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6846 | 227.70*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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