V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.19%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
32.81%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
41.63%
increased by 9.50%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 331.8600 | 6.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1066 | 118.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 6,937.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6844 | 229.63*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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