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Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

47.68%

decreased by 5.46%

1 Week

49.30%

decreased by 3.84%

1 Month

55.29%

increased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/07/2024

to

11/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Nov 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.69 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run323.4162
1.68*
αscore0.1054
29.59***
βpersistence0.9990
1,734.38***
νDF2.6913
57.08***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

323.4162
1.68*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1054
29.59***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,734.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6913
57.08***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days