V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
35.71%
1 Week
38.00%
1 Month
46.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 26, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 340.8769 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.1061 | 29.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 1,749.56*** |
| νDF | 2.6639 | 59.29*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 340.8769 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1061 | 29.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,749.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6639 | 59.29*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
Other Bitcoin to US Dollar Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies