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Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

46.83%

increased by 1.60%

1 Week

48.59%

increased by 3.36%

1 Month

55.04%

increased by 9.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 5, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst342.4710
1.69*
αARCH0.1067
29.73***
βGARCH0.9990
1,743.46***
νDF2.6749
58.00***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

342.4710
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1067
29.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,743.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6749
58.00***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days