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Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

49.39%

increased by 2.68%

1 Week

51.04%

increased by 4.33%

1 Month

57.13%

increased by 10.42%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst338.8691
1.70*
αARCH0.1061
29.85***
βGARCH0.9990
1,749.56***
νDF2.6635
59.62***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

338.8691
1.70*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1061
29.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,749.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6635
59.62***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days