V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
41.97%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
44.71%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
53.48%
increased by 10.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5819 | 4.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.1574 | 4.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8208 | 40.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0141 | 0.20 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5819 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1574 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8208 | 40.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0141 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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