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V-Lab

Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

30.88%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

34.79%

increased by 3.81%

1 Month

46.32%

increased by 15.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5696
17.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1569
16.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8222
163.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0136
0.78

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days