Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
37.92%
increased by 0.55%
1 Week
41.02%
increased by 3.65%
1 Month
50.70%
increased by 13.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5771 | 4.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1567 | 4.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8209 | 40.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.0152 | 0.22 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5771 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1567 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8209 | 40.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0152 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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