V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
33.09%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
36.71%
increased by 2.76%
1 Month
47.62%
increased by 13.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5683 | 17.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1570 | 16.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8223 | 163.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0136 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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