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Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

37.92%

increased by 0.55%

1 Week

41.02%

increased by 3.65%

1 Month

50.70%

increased by 13.33%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5771
4.44***
αARCH0.1567
4.02***
βGARCH0.8209
40.58***
γleverage0.0152
0.22

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5771
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1567
4.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8209
40.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0152
0.22

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days