Bitcoin to US Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
48.44%
decreased by 3.33%
1 Week
50.60%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Month
57.79%
increased by 6.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Nov 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5678 | 4.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.1564 | 4.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8220 | 40.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0139 | 0.20 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5678 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1564 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8220 | 40.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0139 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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