V-Lab
Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
7.59%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
7.64%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
7.82%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 81% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 81% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0034 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0662 | 6.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9402 | 157.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.0296 | -2.20** |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0034 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0662 | 6.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9402 | 157.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0296 | -2.20** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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