V-Lab
Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.16%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
6.25%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
6.55%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 80% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 80% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0034 | 4.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0663 | 6.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9401 | 156.63*** |
| γleverage | -0.0294 | -2.19** |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0034 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9401 | 156.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0294 | -2.19** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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