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V-Lab

Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

6.20%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

6.29%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

6.59%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0034
18.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0663
26.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9400
624.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0293
-8.71***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days