Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.20%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
6.29%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
6.59%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0034 | 18.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 26.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9400 | 624.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0293 | -8.71*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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