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V-Lab

Canadian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

3.93%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

3.95%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.03%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Canadian Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~173 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0005
3.20***
αARCH0.0364
4.84***
βGARCH0.9662
239.28***
γleverage-0.0131
-1.30

0.996

Persistence

173d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
3.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0364
4.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9662
239.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0131
-1.30

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

173 days