Canadian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
3.93%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
3.95%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.03%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~173 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 3.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0364 | 4.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9662 | 239.28*** |
| γleverage | -0.0131 | -1.30 |
0.996
Persistence173d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0364 | 4.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9662 | 239.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0131 | -1.30 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
173 days
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