V-Lab
Canadian Dollar EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
4.30%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
4.35%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.53%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0019 | -0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.0814 | 7.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9952 | 674.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.0128 | 1.52 |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0019 | -0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0814 | 7.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 674.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0128 | 1.52 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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