US Dollar to Canadian Dollar EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.76%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
3.81%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.99%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 37% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0019 | -2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 31.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 2,675.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0128 | 6.07*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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