US Dollar to Canadian Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.82%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
3.84%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
3.92%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 171 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 56% more than negative returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 11.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0295 | 26.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9660 | 956.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1111 | -9.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0055 | 41.57*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
171 days
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