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V-Lab

US Dollar to Canadian Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

3.82%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

3.84%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

3.92%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Canadian Dollar APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 171 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 56% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
11.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0295
26.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9660
956.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1111
-9.12***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0055
41.57***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

171 days