V-Lab
Hungarian Forint EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
9.73%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
9.82%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
10.17%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 157 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~157 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0045 | 3.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0818 | 7.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9956 | 592.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.0067 | 0.86 |
0.996
Persistence157d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0045 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 592.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0067 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
157 days
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