Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Hungarian Forint EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

9.73%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

9.82%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

10.17%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 157 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~157 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0045
3.00***
αARCH0.0818
7.58***
βGARCH0.9956
592.97***
γleverage0.0067
0.86

0.996

Persistence

157d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0045
3.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0818
7.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9956
592.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0067
0.86

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

157 days