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V-Lab

US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

3.91%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

3.93%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.01%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
14.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0307
29.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9653
876.76***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

172 days