US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
3.95%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.97%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
4.05%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 174 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~174 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0006 | 3.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0306 | 7.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9655 | 220.43*** |
0.996
Persistence174d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9655 | 220.43*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
174 days
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