V-Lab
US Dollar to Philippine Peso EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
4.83%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
4.97%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.43%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0559 | -1.53 |
| αARCH | 0.1517 | 2.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9649 | 51.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.0130 | 0.34 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0559 | -1.53 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1517 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9649 | 51.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0130 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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