V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
10.01%
increased by 1.73%
1 Week
9.98%
increased by 1.70%
1 Month
9.90%
increased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0022 | 4.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.0263 | 4.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9555 | 206.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.0210 | 1.88* |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0022 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0263 | 4.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9555 | 206.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0210 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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