V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.02%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
8.03%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
8.05%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0022 | 19.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0265 | 17.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9551 | 821.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0212 | 7.54*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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