V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.81%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.88%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.14%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 19.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0267 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9558 | 842.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0204 | 7.53*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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