V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
9.33%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
9.32%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
9.29%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0019 | 3.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0391 | 9.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9529 | 195.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.1195 | 2.30** |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0391 | 9.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9529 | 195.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1195 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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