Israeli Shekel AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
8.25%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
8.23%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
8.13%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.06) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 19.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 39.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9259 | 559.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0579 | -8.19*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
Other Israeli Shekel Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Currencies