V-Lab
Israeli Shekel AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
7.63%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
7.62%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
7.57%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.06) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0020 | 4.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0616 | 9.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9271 | 142.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.0581 | -2.04** |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 4.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0616 | 9.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 | 142.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0581 | -2.04** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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