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V-Lab

Israeli Shekel AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

8.25%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

8.23%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

8.13%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Israeli Shekel AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.06) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0021
19.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0625
39.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9259
559.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0579
-8.19***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days