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V-Lab

Israeli Shekel AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

7.63%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

7.62%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

7.57%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:12 PM UTC

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graph of Israeli Shekel AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.06) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0020
4.94***
αARCH0.0616
9.79***
βGARCH0.9271
142.20***
γleverage-0.0581
-2.04**

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0020
4.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0616
9.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9271
142.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0581
-2.04**

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days