V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.96%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
16.65%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Month
15.70%
decreased by 2.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0368 | 12.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 23.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8825 | 277.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0965 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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