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V-Lab

Gold Troy Ounce AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.96%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

16.65%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Month

15.70%

decreased by 2.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold Troy Ounce AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0368
12.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0652
23.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8825
277.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0965
-1.83*

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days