V-Lab
Danish Krone AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.31%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
4.33%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
4.41%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 412 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 9.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 42.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9702 | 1,470.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0541 | -5.68*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
412 days
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