V-Lab
Danish Krone AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
4.42%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.44%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.52%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 416 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~416 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.22** |
| αARCH | 0.0280 | 10.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9704 | 369.38*** |
| γleverage | -0.0553 | -1.45 |
0.998
Persistence416d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0280 | 10.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9704 | 369.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0553 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
416 days
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