V-Lab
Danish Krone Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
3.86%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
3.87%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.91%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 328 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~328 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8806 | 5.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0255 | 8.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9724 | 317.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.17 |
0.998
Persistence328d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8806 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0255 | 8.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9724 | 317.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
328 days
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