Danish Krone Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.51%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.52%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.55%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 324 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8889 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0255 | 8.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9723 | 316.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.01 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
324 days
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