Skip to main content
V-Lab

Moroccan Dirham Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

3.97%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

3.96%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

3.96%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Moroccan Dirham SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7152
3.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0345
6.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9454
113.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0321
-0.92
γ20.0797
1.62
γ3-0.0917
-3.68***
γ40.0914
4.63***
γ5-0.1034
-5.47***
γ60.0938
5.25***
γ7-0.0464
-2.55**
γ80.0382
1.88*
γ9-0.1075
-3.50***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days