Moroccan Dirham Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3.97%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
3.96%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
3.96%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7152 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0345 | 6.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9454 | 113.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0321 | -0.92 |
| γ2 | 0.0797 | 1.62 |
| γ3 | -0.0917 | -3.68*** |
| γ4 | 0.0914 | 4.63*** |
| γ5 | -0.1034 | -5.47*** |
| γ6 | 0.0938 | 5.25*** |
| γ7 | -0.0464 | -2.55** |
| γ8 | 0.0382 | 1.88* |
| γ9 | -0.1075 | -3.50*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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