Singapore Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.63%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.66%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.78%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9522 | 7.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0481 | 9.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9440 | 169.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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