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V-Lab
V-Lab

Singapore Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

2.58%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

2.62%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.76%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

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graph of Singapore Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0006
4.78***
αARCH0.0563
5.70***
βGARCH0.9467
184.03***
γleverage-0.0204
-1.46

0.993

Persistence

96d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
4.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0563
5.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9467
184.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0204
-1.46

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days