V-Lab
Singapore Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
2.51%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
2.55%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.70%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 56% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 19.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0565 | 22.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9464 | 730.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0204 | -5.81*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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