Singapore Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.75%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
2.78%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
2.91%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 56% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 19.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0564 | 22.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9464 | 728.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0202 | -5.78*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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