V-Lab
Singapore Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
2.58%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.62%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.76%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0006 | 4.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0563 | 5.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9467 | 184.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.0204 | -1.46 |
0.993
Persistence96d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0563 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9467 | 184.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0204 | -1.46 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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