V-Lab
Singapore Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.52%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.56%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
2.72%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 18.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0470 | 38.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9453 | 695.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0272 | -5.99*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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