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V-Lab

Singapore Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.50%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

2.54%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

2.69%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Singapore Dollar APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 56% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
11.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0463
28.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9465
728.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1119
-10.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9741
39.24***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days