V-Lab
Kuwaiti Dinar APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
2.24%
1 Week
2.26%
1 Month
2.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. The volatility power δ = 2.23 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.0824 | 3.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8967 | 54.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.0518 | 0.61 |
| δpower | 2.2347 | 5.54*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0824 | 3.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8967 | 54.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0518 | 0.61 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2347 | 5.54*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
Other Kuwaiti Dinar Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Currencies