Kuwaiti Dinar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.92%
increased by 5.65%
1 Week
8.85%
increased by 5.58%
1 Month
8.59%
increased by 5.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0867 | 5.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9042 | 59.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0361 | 1.79* |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9042 | 59.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0361 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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