Kuwaiti Dinar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.33%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
3.33%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
3.34%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0770 | 2.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9040 | 58.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0188 | 0.40 |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0770 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9040 | 58.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0188 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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