Malaysian Ringgit GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
2.56%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.66%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.00%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~183 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0011 | 5.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0918 | 6.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9058 | 102.63*** |
| γleverage | -0.0028 | -0.11 |
0.996
Persistence183d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 5.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 6.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9058 | 102.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0028 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
183 days
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