Malaysian Ringgit GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
3.45%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
3.52%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.76%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~190 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0011 | 5.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0906 | 6.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9074 | 103.76*** |
| γleverage | -0.0033 | -0.13 |
0.996
Persistence190d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 5.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0906 | 6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9074 | 103.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0033 | -0.13 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
190 days
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