V-Lab
Malaysian Ringgit GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.99%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
3.06%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
3.34%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~194 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0010 | 5.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.0899 | 5.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9089 | 106.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0046 | -0.19 |
0.996
Persistence194d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9089 | 106.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0046 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
194 days
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