V-Lab
US Dollar to Indian Rupee GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.68%
1 Week
3.68%
1 Month
3.71%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 118% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 12.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0849 | 27.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9381 | 463.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0460 | -11.72*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies