V-Lab
US Dollar to Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.65%
1 Week
4.01%
1 Month
5.04%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 142% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1645 | 29.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8225 | 147.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0965 | -18.51*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0002 | 7.29*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9795 | 56.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0205 | 6.40*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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