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V-Lab

US Dollar to Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

3.24%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

3.52%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

4.42%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 143% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1645
29.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8229
148.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0968
-18.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
7.29***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9793
56.89***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0207
6.45***

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days