V-Lab
US Dollar to Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.09%
1 Week
4.31%
1 Month
4.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 142% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.1645 | 6.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8227 | 48.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.0965 | -4.01*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0002 | 1.70* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9792 | 15.80*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0208 | 0.68 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1645 | 6.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8227 | 48.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0965 | -4.01*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0002 | 1.70* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9792 | 15.80*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0208 | 0.68 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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