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US Dollar to Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.09%

increased by 0.27%

1 Week

4.31%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

4.91%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 142% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 142% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.1645
6.26***
βGARCH0.8227
48.70***
γleverage-0.0965
-4.01***
λ₁tau intercept0.0002
1.70*
λ₂forecast adj.0.9792
15.80***
λ₃tau persistence0.0208
0.68

0.939

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1645
6.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8227
48.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0965
-4.01***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
1.70*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9792
15.80***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0208
0.68

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days