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V-Lab

US Dollar to Indian Rupee AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

7.00%

increased by 2.35%

1 Week

7.22%

increased by 2.57%

1 Month

8.22%

increased by 3.57%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Indian Rupee AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.031 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.10
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1181
28.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9129
375.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0066
-1.08

Persistence:

1.031

Half-life:

-