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V-Lab

US Dollar to Indian Rupee APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.44%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

4.45%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

4.48%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Indian Rupee APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 59513120 trading days (~236163.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 117% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
4.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0630
19.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9370
471.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2004
-11.42***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9038
34.24***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

59513120 days