US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
18.06%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
17.89%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
17.29%
decreased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 01:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0164 | 1.49 |
| αARCH | 0.0281 | 1.56 |
| βGARCH | 0.9361 | 60.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0272 | 0.59 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0164 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 1.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9361 | 60.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0272 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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