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US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

18.59%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

18.40%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

17.72%

decreased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0166
1.45
αARCH0.0273
1.54
βGARCH0.9356
60.69***
γleverage0.0289
0.62

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0166
1.45
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0273
1.54
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9356
60.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0289
0.62

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days