V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.40%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
16.27%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
15.83%
decreased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0178 | 6.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0287 | 6.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9323 | 239.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0290 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
Other US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies