V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.48%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
16.35%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
15.91%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 103% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 6.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9333 | 240.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0290 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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