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V-Lab

US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.48%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

16.35%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

15.91%

decreased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 103% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0175
6.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0281
6.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9333
240.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0290
2.42**

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days