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V-Lab

US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

16.40%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

16.27%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Month

15.83%

decreased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0178
6.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0287
6.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9323
239.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0290
2.39**

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days