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US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.20%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

13.22%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

13.27%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0164
1.44
αARCH0.0267
1.53
βGARCH0.9364
60.56***
γleverage0.0287
0.62

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0164
1.44
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0267
1.53
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9364
60.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0287
0.62

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days