V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
15.24%
increased by 0.73%
1 Week
15.17%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
14.91%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0168 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0272 | 1.53 |
| βGARCH | 0.9352 | 60.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0288 | 0.62 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0168 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0272 | 1.53 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9352 | 60.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0288 | 0.62 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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