V-Lab
US Dollar to Gold Troy Ounce MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
18.39%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
18.15%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
17.30%
decreased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0363 | 3.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9214 | 64.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0284 | 1.27 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6870 | 1.04 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0363 | 3.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9214 | 64.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0284 | 1.27 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6870 | 1.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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