V-Lab
British Pound GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
5.00%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
5.03%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.16%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~128 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 3.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0234 | 2.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9653 | 194.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0119 | 0.82 |
0.995
Persistence128d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0234 | 2.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9653 | 194.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0119 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
128 days
Other British Pound Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies