British Pound GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.84%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.88%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.01%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 01:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~132 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 3.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0235 | 2.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9654 | 196.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0116 | 0.80 |
0.995
Persistence132d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 3.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0235 | 2.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9654 | 196.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0116 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
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